Review of last week analysis –
Last week prediction went almost correct. Though the weekly closing was expected to be slightly Bullish, it gave slightly Bearish closing. Nifty made a short term base on Monday touching the 22500 mark and then gave a Bullish move for next two days. The expected Bullish move on 26th which was off day came on 25th. Market turned Bearish on Friday giving a slightly Bearish closing.
Let’s look at the next week analysis which is a short week.
Fundamental analysis
Global Risk Sentiment – Geopolitical tensions in West Asia (US-Iran) remain the primary driver of volatility in the Global markets. Brent Crude is currently hovering around 105 dollars per barrel. The energy disruption in the global market and global recession can be seen on the cards by analysts. Even though US claims of peace talks with Iran, there are no such claims from Iran and the attack continues from both sides.
Domestic factors – The Rupee is trading at an all time low of around 95 per US dollar. This can hurt Indian imports and put the country at the risk of inflation. The recent ₹10/litre excise duty cut on petrol and diesel by the government offers some sentiment relief but also highlights the severity of energy inflation.
FII/DII Bias – FII remain aggressive sellers now for straight 6 weeks crossing the outflows of around ₹1,07,000 crore in March alone.DII keep acting like a cushion, absorbing over 100% of this selloff from FII.
Overall fundamentals still suggests Bearish sentiments until the crude price start trading below 100.
Technical Analysis
Opiton Chain shows the broader range for this week would be around 22000 – 24000 as these two levels have highest Open Interest. Incase of some really bad news, Nifty is expected to take support around 21500 – 21800 levels. Incase of good news expect short covering till 23500 to 23800 levels.
Nifty closed with 5th successive red weekly candle which is rare and so the probability of a Bullish weekly candle in this week or next week becomes high. The weekly RSI is around 30 , the last time this happened was in covid.
Astrological analysis
This week the conjunction of Mercury, Rahu and Mars is in 2nd house indicating market will remain highly volatile with misleading spikes or drops in price. The combination of Sun and Sat in 3d house represent that communication and logistics are under pressure causing friction in market momentum.
Jupiter in 6th house is not a great placement so it won’t be able to support the market much. The combination of Monn with Ketu in 8th house can lead to panic selling or unpredictable gap downs.
From 1st April as moon moves to 2nd house and Jupiter to 11th house, market might get some breather.
Overall this week being short (31st march and 2nd April off) looks to be volatile as we can see both Bearish and Bullish movements in the three trading sessions. There will be change in the planetary energies with Mars leaving the high volatile combination of Mercury and Rahu in Aquarius on 2nd April and joining another high energy combination of Sun and Saturn in pisces.
