Review of last week analysis –
Last week prediction was very accurate. Nifty opened Gap up and sustained Bullishness but started Giving up by mid – week as predicted. It tested the 26000 level but couldn’t break it and reversed from there. Again as predicted – on Friday market reacted to the news and opened gap down and closed in negative.
Let’s look at the analysis for this week from Feb 16- Feb 20
Fundamentals Analysis –
Global Sentiment – The global mood is currently bearish, primarily because of the AI driven concerns as well as US- Iran standoff.
Domestic factors – Domestic factors indicate stability as NSE hit massive milestone with 25 crore demat accounts in India. The steady flow of SIPs (approx. ₹28,000 crore/month) provides a stable support to the market during corrections.
Q3 Results – Frontline banks (SBI, HDFC, ICICI) report steady credit growth and controlled NPAs, acting as the Nifty’s backbone. The IT sector remains under pressure due to cautious global tech spending and AI-related transition costs.
Institutional Flow –FII became heavy sellers on Friday while DII still absorbing this selling.
Overall, fundamentally market looks at a cautious stature this week.
Technical analysis –
Option Chain – In the weekly Option chain max Put OI is on 25000 and max call OI is at 26000. The option chain looks too bullish this week.
Nifty made a bearish inside candle with the large Bullish candle of the last week. There looks to be a strong resistance at 26000 levels and so this week the lower levels of 25000 and 24800 might get tested. Nifty has started trading below 50 EMA which can be a bearish sign at least for short term.
Technical analysis weekly range : 26000 – 25000 to 24800
(Check daily intraday levels on Daily page)
Astrological analysis –
This week looks pretty volatile as there are important events and conjunctions –
On 16th Moon and Mars conjunct in Capricorn in 8th house. Mars is exalted in Capricorn, which can results in sharp spikes and intraday volatility in Nifty. Saturn in 10th house gives an upper limit check on Nifty.
On 17th there is a ‘special’ Solar eclipse with Sun, Moon, Venus, Mercury and Rahu conjunction in Aquarius. This can cause high volatility driven by any important news.
The mid -week (18th-19th) can see some consolidation after the week starting with volatility. Given exalted mars in 3rd house aspecting Muntha in 6th house can give good strength to Nifty. The 5 planet cluster (Sun, Moon, Venus, Mercury and Rahu) in 4th house might indicate a base formation.
On 20th there is another rare conjunction of Saturn and Neptune in Pisces. Might see some profit booking in the last hour.