Review of last week analysis –
Last week analysis was very accurate. As predicted Nifty gave both side moves in just 3 trading sessions as well as took some breather on April 1st and 2nd after giving a new low closing on 31st March.
Let’s look at the analysis for next week.
Fundamental analysis
Global Sentiment – Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran remain the primary risk for both the Global and Indian markets. Brent Crude is hovering in the $110 range and gave a strong weekly closing.
Domestic factors – The Indian Rupee (trading around 93 per dollar) remains a concern for imported inflation. The recent excise duty cuts by the government has been helpful to manage fuel prices but it impacts the revenue. This week there is RBI MPC meeting from 6-8 April , though it is not expected to increase the repo rate but market will be watchful for any surprises.
FII/DII Bias – FII Remained aggressive net sellers, offloading over ₹8,300 crore on April 1st alone. DII continue to absorb the selling pressure from FII.
Overall Fundamentals doesn’t look great with the middle east war still going on and putting pressure on energy market with probability of Global inflation increasing.
Technical Analysis
This week Option Chain is showing too wide range from 21000 – 24000. Means market is ready for both side levels incase of good news and bad news.
However the high probability range would be 21500 – 23500 for this week as 21500 – 21700 marks as an important support zone until a monthly candle closes below these levels.
As predicted in last week analysis Nifty made a green weekly candle last week after 4 consecutive bearish candle. Technically both Nifty and Banknifty are showing Bullish RSI divergence , which means the market looks to create a support zone at the current levels and seek Bullish opportunity as when fundamentals become supportive.
Astrological analysis
For this week the placement of Moon in scorpio is not very supportive for market, while Jupiter in 10th house is a decent placement. High energy conjunctions of Mercury and Rahu in aquarius and Saturn, Mars, and Sun in Pisces are likely to bring volatility in this week as well. As moon transits to Saggitarius on 8th April, there is a hopefulness of bottom creation among the investors though the market might get stuck in a range with Both selling and Buying pressure.
Overall this week looks like another week of volatility where market will feel pressure from upper levels and might not sustain and might give up the last week gains