Review of last month analysis –
Last month prediction was somewhat accurate. Though Nifty was Bearish to volatile in the first two weeks as predicted but it stayed Bearish and volatile for rest of the Month with Indiavix closing around 27, while I was expecting Bullish closing towards the Month end.
Nifty Fell around 11% in March without any major retracement.
Let’s look at the analysis for the April month
Fundamental Analysis
Global Sentiment – The global sentiments are majorly dependent on the war in middle -east specifically to the blockage of Strait of Hormuz which is responsible for increase in the crude oil prices and LPG crises as India is heavily dependent on these items. The global sentiments will shift to positive incase of any peace deal.
Domestic factors – The fall of Rupee to an all time low of around 94 per dollar can increase India’s deficit. So Rupee value will be something to watch in the month of April. The RBI MPC meeting (April 6–8) is expected to maintain a “hawkish pause.” Any surprise move to defend the Rupee or manage inflation could trigger sharp reactions.
Institutional Flows – Foreign investors sold a record $11.7 billion in March 2026. Their net short positions (near 250k contracts) indicate they are heavily hedged or bearish going into April. Domestic institutions continue to provide a floor, absorbing over ₹14,000 crore on major dip days
Technical Analysis
Nifty has given a strong Bearish monthly closing below 22500 from the highs of around 26000. The monthly candle has closed below the lower Bollinger Band. The Area around 22000 – 21500 looks to be a strong support zone before any further fall. The Monthly closing Below these levels might trigger the long term Bearish trend for few more months.
In the Monthly Option Chain , there is highest Open interest in 23000 levels, suggesting the range for April month might be 24000 – 21500.
Astrological Analysis
This month market will look to take a breather with Mars leaving the high volatile combination with Rahu and Mercury in Aquarius and joining the Sun and Saturn in Pisces on April 2nd. This marks another high intensity combination in water sign and so we might see some news related to water Bodies, Oceans with respect to the war on which Markets can react negatively. The placement of Moon in 2nd house and Jupiter in 11th house is positive for the market and so Buyers will see an opportunity to buy for any further fall in this month.
Some important conjunctions this month –
Mars (8°) conjunct Neptune (8°) in Pisces on 13th April
Moon (9°), Mercury (6°), Mars (10°), Neptune (8°) and Saturn (13°) Conjunction in Pisces on 16th April
Mars (14°), Saturn (13°) and Mercury (13°) in Pisces on 20th April (Very important)
Venus (5°) conjunct Uranus (5°) in Taurus on 24th April
Final Overview – This Month looks to be a month of consolidation with both Bullish and Bearish moves but highly likely forming the base for a short term Bullish trend. Market will likely test the lows of the March or make new lows before a major Bullish move.
For a more accurate predictions on shorter time frame check the weekly page.