Review of last week analysis –
Last week prediction was spot on as bearish Doji formation was expected. Nifty opened slightly gap down on Monday and made a strong Bullish candle, and in first 3 days gained around 900 points from lows. On Thursday it opened huge gap down and closed just around 23000 giving up all the gains of the first 3 days. On Friday it made an inverted hammer candle making a Bearish Doji for the week.
Let’s look at the next week analysis
Fundamental analysis
Global Risk Sentiment – The crude prices are still hovering around $100 per barrel directly impacting India’s trade deficit and inflation outlook. There is an eager watch around the world for diplomatic ease in tensions as the countries are putting pressure for opening of Strait of Hormuz to resume the safe passage of the ships.
Domestic factors – The Rupee is trading at an all time low of around 94 per US dollar. This can hurt Indian imports and put the country at the risk of inflation. Though the GDP growth is still estimated to be around 7.6%.
Institutional Flow – FII remains the net sellers last week as well while DII absorbing more than 100% of the selling pressure.
Overall, fundamentals are all dependent on any news in the Iran – US war, specifically. For any positive news regarding ceasefire or opening of Strait of Hormuz, market will react sharply in the Bullish side.
Technical Analysis
As seen in the Option Chain, market seems to be ready to go for any side – 22000 in the down side and 24000 in the upside for any negative or positive news. So the wider range becomes 22000-24000 for the week. While in case of no significant news, Nifty might just be range bound from around 22500 – 23800.
Nifty made an indecisive Bearish Doji last week. This means Nifty is ready to move either side based on the news. Technically Nifty is still in an oversold region with the current area of 23000-22850 acting as an important support.
Astrological analysis
This week, Muntha is with Jupiter in the first house. Moon in 11th house looks to be a positive sign for the market. While the conjunction of Saturn, Venus and Sun in 10th house indicates a tussel between Bulls and the Bears which can result in consolidation for the market. The conjunction of Rahu, Mars and Mercury in 9th house adds volatility as Mercury turned Direct on 20th March.
As the Conjunction of Saturn, Venus and Sun in Pisces shifts to 4th house on 25th March, we can see a base formation in the market atleast for short-term. Expecting a Bullish Day on 26th March with 60% probability.
Overall in this week market might go into consolidation mode giving volatile moves, making a Slightly Bullish weekly candle.