Review of last week analysis –
Last week prediction was somewhat accurate not very accurate day wise. Monday was predicted to be positive , Nifty opened huge gap down and made a strong enough Bullish candle. The rest of the week was predicted to be negative with some Bullish moves on Friday but Friday also closed very negative. So the last week closed on a very Bearish note.
Let’s look at the next week analysis
Fundamental analysis
Global Risk Sentiment – Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed crude oil prices toward $100 per barrel, directly impacting India’s trade deficit and inflation outlook. Additionally, the US Fed meeting on March 18 is a critical event where markets are expecting no change in the outcome, which may keep global liquidity tight.
Domestic factors – India’s February CPI inflation rose to a 10-month high of 3.21%. While still within the RBI’s comfort zone, the upward trend can reduce the likelihood of near-term rate cuts.
Institutional Flow – Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been aggressive sellers, offloading over ₹46,000 crore MTD* in March. While Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have been buying consistently (over ₹60,000 crore MTD*), their absorption has been enough to prevent the crash but not enough to prevent this brutal vertical fall. (*MTD – Month to Date)
Overall, fundamentals still suggest negative market environment this week as well because there are no sign of negotiations in this war from any side.
Technical analysis
In the Option Chain there is heavy call writing in 25000 strike price which is too far. The next level looks to be around 24000 this week. This might be due to expectation of a sudden Bullish move incase any good news comes from fundamentals. The next support looks to be around 22000 in the downside.
The overall range for this week looks to be 22000 to 24000 with 21800 area being the biggest support incase market falls till there.
Nifty gave a strong bearish weekly closing of around 1300 points (5.31%), the biggest negative weekly closing in recent years. The RSI is still below 30 in an oversold region. This can just indicate there can be a dead cat bounce any time even though the primary trend is downwards.
Technically also nifty looks very weak.
Astrological analysis
This week looks pretty volatile with many conjunctions. The conjunction of Mercury with Mars and Rahu in Aquarius can give rise to extreme volatility. Mercury is currently retrograde, which can indicate false breakouts and erratic price action this week.
The Sun, Saturn and Venus conjunction in 5th house is pretty interesting. Though Saturn is combust but still it’s effect will be there providing checks to any up move in the market which can be sold.
On 17th the Moon will transit to aquarius adding to the conjunction of Mars, Mercury and Rahu which suggests increased volatility specifically on 17th March.
The effect of Angaraka Yog is still there in the market hence bearish sentiments prevail. As Mars moves away from Rahu this effect will reduce and we can see the bottom of the market for short -term soon. Jupiter has become Direct and will gain speed will also be a positive factor for the market in the coming days.
Overall this week looks Bearish to Volatile expecting a Bearish Doji formation.