Review of last week analysis –
Last week prediction was somewhat accurate. As predicted Nifty was negative on 3rd March as it opened with a significant gap down but gave a Bullish closing. It again opened gap down on 5th and gave Bullish closing making the bottom. It then went sideways for the rest of the week making the negative doji candle for the week.
Let’s look at the analysis for Nifty for coming week.
Fundamental analysis
Global Risk Sentiment – The escalating conflict between US and Iran has increased the crude oil price to above $90 per barrel which is not a good sign for oil dependent economies like India.
Domestic factors – The domestic factors look stable.
Institutional Flow – FII has become heavy sellers in the first week of march offloading around ₹21,800 crore in a single week driven by the current geopolitical instability. DII has been absorbing this selling buying nearly ₹32,700 crore in the same period preventing a crash.
Overall, fundamentals suggest negative market environment this week as well because neither US nor Iran is ready for Talks to stop the war.
Technical analysis
Option Chain – As per Option Chain this week looks to be in the range of 24000 – 25000. Subject to the Fundamentals and intense war scenarios this range can shift to 23500 to 24500. Else 24k-25k seems to be high prob zone for this week technically.
Nifty closed around 700 points lower than last week. Technically Nifty looks weak But in oversold region as RSI is close to 30 , still trading below daily EMA 200.
Astrological analysis
The week starts with Jupiter in 2nd house which is a good sign. So Monday looks to be a Bullish day but the presence of Venus with Saturn can restrict the upward levels.
Jupiter moves to 8th house and Moon moves to Scorpio in which it is debilitated. Not a great sign for the market and so mid-week looks weak for the market.
On Friday Moon leaves Scorpio and transits to Sagittarius which is a friendly sign so Friday can be positive to sideways.
Overall this week can start on a Bullish note but can become Bearish by the end of the week.